Why the market feels the way it does, and what it means if you're moving.
The question I'm asked most this autumn, on doorsteps, in the office and halfway round Kelsey Park, is some version of the same thing: what on earth is going on, and should we still move? Here's my honest answer, in plain English.
It started with energy, not houses
Most of what you're feeling as a buyer or seller didn't begin on our high streets. Conflict in the Middle East has pushed up oil and energy prices, and that has found its way into everything. Petrol and diesel were nearly 30% dearer in September than a year earlier, and UK inflation climbed to 3.5%, up from 3.1% the month before. The Bank of England's target is 2%.
When inflation rises, the Bank's tool is the interest rate. It held Bank Rate at 3.75% in September, but three of its nine members already wanted to raise it, and the Governor has said that the longer energy prices stay high, the more likely a rise becomes.
Will interest rates go up?
Probably, yes, and probably soon. Markets are pricing in a quarter-point rise to 4% at the Bank's next decision on Thursday 5 November. Nobody can promise that, and a calmer few weeks for energy could change the picture, but it would be unwise to plan on rates falling any time soon.
Here's the part most headlines miss: fixed mortgage rates have already moved. Lenders price fixed deals off the markets' expectations, not the Bank's announcements. By early October the average two-year fix was 5.98% and the average five-year fix had reached 6%, the highest in around three years. At the start of September there were roughly 1,500 fixed deals under 5%; a month later there were a handful. So if the Bank does move in November, much of the pain is already in the price.
What that does to moving
Higher rates mean the same monthly payment buys less house. Some buyers have paused, others have lowered their budgets, and that has taken the edge off prices nationally: Nationwide recorded a small fall in September, leaving prices up just 0.8% on a year ago. Locally, homes in Beckenham have averaged around £598,000 and in West Wickham around £652,000 over the past year, and good homes, sensibly priced, are still selling. What's changed is that buyers are more careful, and the margin for getting the price wrong is smaller.
And the Budget on Wednesday?
The Chancellor, John Healey, delivers the Autumn Budget on Wednesday 28 October. Some things we already know:
- Stamp duty isn't changing. The Prime Minister has ruled it out for this Budget, so there's no reason to hold off waiting for a cut.
- Help for first-time buyers is coming. The government's proposed "Your First Home" scheme would let first-time buyers in England buy a new-build home with a 2.5% deposit and a government-backed equity loan of up to 20%. Price caps, income limits and the start date are due in the Budget.
- The £2 million council tax surcharge announced last year starts in April 2028. It touches very few homes in our area, but it's worth knowing about if yours is near that level.
- Landlords already face higher tax on property income from April 2027.
Beyond that, it's speculation until the Chancellor sits down. The government has pledged not to raise the main rates of income tax, National Insurance or VAT. The one thing to watch is how the markets react: if they like what they hear, fixed rates can ease; if not, they can tick up again.
So what should you actually do?
If you're selling, price for the market we're in, not the one we had. The homes that sell well right now are the ones that look right and are priced right from day one. Chasing the market down is far more costly than starting in the right place.
If you're buying, this is a better moment to negotiate than it has been for some time, with less competition and more realistic sellers. Get a mortgage agreed in principle before you fall in love with anything, so you know exactly where you stand.
If your fixed rate ends in the next six months, don't wait for it to run out. Many lenders let you secure a new rate months in advance, and you can usually still switch if something better comes along. Arranging your finances first is the single most useful thing you can do this winter.
If you're a first-time buyer looking at new builds, read the Budget detail on Wednesday before you commit.
The steady view
I've worked through enough cycles to know that people don't move because of interest rates. They move because a baby is on the way, a job has changed, the children have grown up or the garden has grown too big. Those reasons don't pause for a Budget. The market will be what it is; the job is to move well within it.
If you'd like to talk through your own situation, ask me. I'll give you a clear, honest answer.
Figures correct on 27 October 2026. Sources: ONS consumer price inflation, September 2026; Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary, September 2026; Moneyfacts, 5 October 2026; Nationwide House Price Index, September 2026; HM Land Registry data via Zoopla (BR3, BR4, last 12 months); HM Treasury and Prime Minister's announcements ahead of the Autumn Budget. This is general information, not personal financial advice. Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.